Opted to play what I guess we can call the secondary target for Friday’s grand finale… despite a higher (possible upgrade) tornado risk across the Midwest, I opted to make the haul to Wichita from Des Moines and set up for the dry line play somewhere near the KS/OK border. I have a slew of both meteorological and logistical reasons for selecting this target, but given all I have seen thus far, it’ll definitely play as the day’s secondary target.
Two big questions for the southern target include how long storms can remain discrete and IF any storms can fire further south along the dryline. The crashing cold front, which was a primary factor for choosing a further south run could serve as the bulldozer to undercut storms and sending everything into an outflow dominated linear mess. There are plenty of signals for storm development across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, so we’ll see exactly how far south along the dryline these storms can form. Plenty of ingredients to support significant severe weather, including tornadoes, so I don’t think I’ll have a stormless bust down this way.
Further north, primarily north of I-80 into eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and Wisconsin, areas in proximity to the low will probably spin down a few significant tornadoes, which is why there is a higher probability set there by SPC. Again, the big question remains how discrete those storms will be. I think that tornado threat will be much earlier in the day than anything we see south, but for how long remains a big question. Lots of forcing yields lots of storms, and they’ll be moving fairly quickly through less-than-favorable terrain. I think the sweet spot will be eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois; that area and it’s potential is one of the reasons I wonder if I made the right call coming down south. But, like I said, it wasn’t all meteorology why I came south, so we’ll see.
We’re 24 hours away at least from showtime down here, so my main focus is to rest and recharge a bit after spending most of the last five days on the road. Fortunately I played yesterday in Iowa well and gave myself a good head start down here, so not only did I make a short drive out of today, but I can take my time getting moving tomorrow unless something urgently calls me from a few more hours away. That said, one more busy day tomorrow, then things will calm down at least through the middle of next week.