Forecast Thoughts

March Dynamics + June Instability

June 16, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Equals what exactly?  Truth is, we won’t have the answer to that equation til this…

Quick Update on Wednesday’s Chase

June 15, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Wednesday is >95% for chasing… I remain in Columbia as I just decided to keep…

Memorial Day Weekend

May 25, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

While early on the calendar this year, we’re still in the climatological peak of severe…

Colorado Chase Thursday?

May 20, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Despite a pretty meh synoptic pattern, a halfway decent, albeit somewhat moisture-deprived setup exists tomorrow…

Saturday’s Iowa Storm, Today’s Potential Failure Modes

Yesterday went about exactly as I thought it would; bottom line was a lot of…

Morning Chase Analysis

May 16, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Target continues to shift further east today; a nice break given I start here in…

The 0z Saturday Thoughts

May 15, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Tomorrow is likely NOT a tornado day… I will just get that out of the…

Wild Weekend Starts Today

May 15, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Good morning from Columbia, MO… packing up and loading up, bout ready to push myself…

Wheels Up for Friday into Next Week

May 14, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

The May-a-Thon Adventure begins Friday… today I’ll be eastbound toward KC and that leaves me…

The May-a-Thon To Commence This Weekend

After a relatively quiet start to May, things are looking to pick back up.  SPC…

Tony's 10-Day Chase Outlook

TODAY JUL 12
No Chase Planned
<5%
TOMORROW JUL 13
No Chase Planned
<5%
TUESDAY JUL 14
No Chase Planned
<5%
WEDNESDAY JUL 15
No Chase Planned
<5%
THURSDAY JUL 16
No Chase Planned
<5%
FRIDAY JUL 17
No Chase Planned
<5%
SATURDAY JUL 18
No Chase Planned
<5%
SUNDAY JUL 19
No Chase Planned
<5%
MONDAY JUL 20
No Chase Planned
<5%
TUESDAY JUL 21
No Chase Planned
<5%
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