For Colorado, this is not unusual to be talking snow in May… a few years ago, we had a hefty Front Range snowstorm in late May, so popping one out the first week of the month isn’t odd. What IS odd was that during what is typically our snowiest month in March, many Front Range locations set the record for their earliest 90-degree high temp day. I hit 90 degrees a couple times in March at my house, which far outweighed any snow we got that month. Now, there is POTENTIAL we could make a run at the biggest snowstorm of the year midweek. On March 6, Denver recorded 8.5″ of snow, which by far was the biggest snow event of the season. While it would take all the good ingredients to come together, it’s not out of the question we make a run for that title midweek. Below are the morning runs of the NAM, GFS, and Euro (6z), all which are agreeing on significant snow potential for the Front Range and Palmer regions…
Nothing is a slam dunk by any stretch at this range, and while my optimism is growing for a decent snow event, I am not ready to fully invest in the idea. But having seen consistency in snow potential the last few days, and now all three models are on board with the idea, I am definitely sliding into a cautious level of excitement at the idea I could be playing in snow come Tuesday and Wednesday. How much cold air can get pulled into all this will really be the key piece, as the moisture definitely seems like it’s there regardless of how it falls. That being said, this looks like it’ll be our first REAL shot at substantial moisture in a very parched Colorado in a couple months.
There is a severe side to this system, which is usually the case this time of year, but fortunately it’s low enough in the potential where it’s hardly a thought for me. The setup looks more messy, high winds and hail kinda thing, which is easily beaten out by a solid snow chance here in Colorado. I personally love it when warm season snowstorms don’t have the difficult choice of chasing verses snow. Keeps me brain relaxed haha Right now, this is definitely all snow for me unless something incredibly drastic changes, and it would need to do so by tomorrow if I was going to pivot that violently to chase given the distance I would need to cover to get in position for the severe side, which even on its own, is in pretty crappy chase terrain anyway. Have I mentioned how little interest I have in the severe side of this one haha
So yeah, I am likely looking at playing in the snow midweek here along the Front Range/Eastern Plains. The models are converging on a wintry system, and obviously the forecasted amounts will vary as the models get a handle on the track. Nothing is a slam dunk yet, but its leaning in a snowy direction that I rather highly approve of. So we’ll see… how cold it gets and stays, its timing, and the exact track and phasing of the pieces of energy all remain unknowns and will highly dictate what ultimately comes of this. But no matter how much falls (if any); it ain’t gonna last long. Monday, ahead of the system, we’ll be in the 70s, and barring extensive snow cover, may return to the 70s as early as Thursday after the storm departs. Typical Colorado haha Can’t wait…