Equals what exactly?  Truth is, we won’t have the answer to that equation til this time tomorrow.  The ceiling on this event is as high as any setup this year, but its 2026 and this year likes to do nothing with it.  That’s good, really it is.  No one wants to see these high ceiling events pan out.  But just because we want that doesn’t mean it will.  One has to go, the law of averages says so.  But will it be tomorrow?  That’s the question. Chatter across the web varies from tornado outbreak of the year (a bar not…

Wednesday is >95% for chasing… I remain in Columbia as I just decided to keep things simple as opposed to packing, moving, and unpacking; just keep my room and hang out.  Maybe, just maybe I will lean my way east tomorrow, but given all I have seen, just about any target for Wednesday is easily well within range of here, so I may keep my home here and depart Wednesday morning. That being said, I am less than 20% for Tuesday, which continues to shift further north and east, and not looking great to begin with, so it was a…

I’ve been lacking in the blog department because I literally haven’t had time to myself since June started.  I chased, flew to Chicago for Pokemon GoFest, flew home, then hours later was on the road for the trip that was suppose to conclude today, but has now been extended due to a high-end setup that’s coming into focus for Wednesday.  I will be out likely through Thursday at least, just depending on the drive home that awaits at the conclusion of that event. Today, Sunday, is a down day here in Columbia where last night’s chase concluded after being chased…

While early on the calendar this year, we’re still in the climatological peak of severe weather season, and there is barely a storm around.  Those who ‘have’ to be out are running back and forth from Texas to South Dakota, many heading down to Texas today.  Ten-plus years ago, that be me… not now haha In fact, I am somewhat content with the down time, albeit weird during THIS holiday, which has usually been one of the busiest times for me.  Not this time, and it looks like the down stretch will likely be an extended one, minus a couple…

The #ChaseTo500 continues with two more tick marks after yesterday’s pretty solid Colorado chase.  That puts the count to TEN tornadoes so far in 2026, leaving me 16 away from the 500 mark.  But of those ten, the only tornado to really speak of was the Minnesota tornadoes back on April 13.  Everything else I have seen have barely counted as tornadoes.  The two I saw yesterday in Colorado, neither were slamdunk touchdowns; the first, a rather pretty funnel, was confirmed by others that were positioned a bit better as I had just enough of a terrain rise between me…

Despite a pretty meh synoptic pattern, a halfway decent, albeit somewhat moisture-deprived setup exists tomorrow across eastern Colorado.  SPC has ticked up their outlook for the region since a general risk last night, opened with a marginal, now we’re sitting at a slight.  But us high plains nerds were all over this before sunset yesterday.  Questions becomes how big a crowd does tomorrow draw?  After the insanity that was the last couple days, one can’t help but be concerned about the crowds that could amass in eastern Colorado where we lack a solid gridded road network.  So lots of people…