It’s been a minute since we’ve seen a multi-day stretch of outlooks from SPC. If you ignore the calendar, you could pretend this is May, but nope, welcome to the first week of March!
I’m prepping here at home today to head out for that multi-day stint. It should all get started with me on Wednesday, with four days back-to-back, basically in the same area. Friday, right now as of this posting, looks like the biggest of the four days, which had been Wednesday as it looked a few days ago, but I’d definitely say there’s no question that Friday is the biggest day to watch. Wednesday, which is concentrated from Dallas up into northwest Arkansas, I am not ruling out a play further north along the warm front toward Missouri/Illinois. This has that feel of a sleeper day in the secondary target with the warm front and low in play across southeast Missouri into the southern half of Illinois. We’ll see how that shakes out; but despite those thoughts, I am meh enough about Wednesday where I probably WON’T haul east for that given better setups (albeit conditionally better) exist further west starting Thursday.
Thursday, and particularly Friday, are the two days of my biggest note right now, and probably stand to be the two days I would venture out on if the forecast holds. Thursday, again rather conditional, could be an interesting day if things come together in a timely manner. Friday, which is progged as the biggest day, certainly does NOT have outbreak written on it as the difference key ingredients are a bit out of phase from each other, it certainly looks to be the higher end setup of the bunch. But as the midweek system clears out, we’ll have to see what’s left in its wake and whether things rebound quickly enough to put Thursday in play. Fortunately, as long Wednesday remains off the table for me, we can ride out a few sets of model runs before pulling the chase trigger, which would likely see us departing midday on Wednesday.
Til then, we watch and wait… an early kickoff to the season, but after this series of systems (which may extend into early next week), things look like they’ll simmer down. So all eyes set on the first series of severe weather days of 2026.
