Equals what exactly? Truth is, we won’t have the answer to that equation til this time tomorrow. The ceiling on this event is as high as any setup this year, but its 2026 and this year likes to do nothing with it. That’s good, really it is. No one wants to see these high ceiling events pan out. But just because we want that doesn’t mean it will. One has to go, the law of averages says so. But will it be tomorrow? That’s the question.
Chatter across the web varies from tornado outbreak of the year (a bar not terribly high, mind you), to a messy mess of low instability storms in the wake of whatever blows through overnight. You’re here reading this now asking, “Tony, what is your thought?” The answer… haha if I knew that, I’d be making a lot more money than I do lol
Sadly, there is no answer. Sure, there are some incredibly hefty ingredients in play if you look at the models. Just about any clock within the warm sector on your model of choice will pull a PDS Tornado sounding. The numbers in some cases are off the charts. Real potent over for these storms to bake. But there are buts, BIG BUTS, and I cannot lie. Morning MCS comes through, maybe bigger than anticipated, which would relocate that over further south. Does it hang around too long? Maybe not enough instability. The dynamics are strong, super strong, thus you need to put some beefy joules with it in order for those storms not to get ripped apart before they get established. That is a real concern tomorrow, one that, in my opinion, offers the bigger fail mode than anything the overnight stuff will bring. Albeit related, it sucks the instability out which sets the stage for the dynamics to rip the updrafts apart. So yeah, I guess writing that out, one could make a case that both are equally as important.
That said, I sit here in Springfield, Illinois; probably a target all on its own, so we’ll see what we awaken to, MCS, etc, and decide. A lot of the reason for basing here tonight was to allow that adjustment tomorrow in a timely manner and not be hauling in from three hours away trying to assess that on the fly. Tomorrow very well could be one of those ‘stay at the hotel’ days.
I dunno, I can’t get a feel on what I think about tomorrow. It’s a VERY high ceiling event, one that if realized, will be among the biggest events of the year. But it has big fail modes that can completely make this wiff on many accounts. Do I think there will be storms? Yes. Do I think they’ll be severe? Yes. Do I think they’ll be SIGNIFICANTLY severe? Probably. Do I think it’ll be a tornado outbreak? Possibly. The numbers exist on the paper, so we’ll see how they’ll come into play.
Sleep awaits… may be a long day regardless. We shall see…