Monsoony Week Ahead in Colorado

August 11, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

 

 

A lot going on locally, including some weather with chasing potential over the next few days… all this leading into the FIRST weekend in God-Knows-How-Long that will actually be NICE to be outside for…

Chasing-wise, nothing significant on the level I would LIKE to see on an August setup, hail/wind threats along with potential for flash flooding (mainly on Thursday for flooding).  Tomorrow will probably require a bit of a northerly haul, perhaps into northwest Nebraska.  Models have been throwing darts at the region for where the best severe weather setup lies, but my hunch will be closer to the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  A few do have some potential along I-80 into northeast Colorado, which would be more ideal for me, but we’ll see.  Currently on a ‘Yellow Light’ with work, so hopefully it’ll go green by tomorrow morning.  I will load up and prepare just to be ready for a quick turn tomorrow morning.  Thursday sees the overall severe threat lessen, but the focal area will reside across eastern Colorado.  With less upper dynamics, the severe threat lowers along with the storm speed, and with PLENTY of moisture combined with those slow moving storms, you better believe flash flooding will be an issue.  I will also look into deploying Thursday, mainly with a focus on that, but the where exactly remains to be seen.  Chances are I will stick to the Front Range; whether that’s close to home up north, Denver, or Colorado Springs, remains to be seen.  Friday, the solid moisture lessens, but would be enough to still be problematic, particularly in areas that may get hammered Wednesday or Thursday.

Storm chances lessen in both coverage and intensity over the weekend, but will still remain.  What will NOT remain is the heat; after mid/upper 90s for the first half of the week, it may be a struggle to get into the 80s, particularly the final couple days of the work week.  And not much rise beyond that heading into the weekend, but mid-80s will feel worlds better than the 100+ that has seemingly ruined just about every weekend in the last month.  The best news, perhaps, is those 80s SHOULD linger into next week, so this won’t be a 48 hour tease, but something that’ll hold for a handful of days.  We’ll heat back up again middle of next week, but that one may only be a couple-day teaser as another front looks to try and sneak in late next week which will knock us down again.  Not sure I am ready to wave the Pumpkin-Spice flag yet, but I will take the small victory of knowing the next heat blast will be a quickie!

The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer or affiliated organizations.

Tony's 10-Day Chase Outlook

TODAY AUG 12
Possible Chase Day
40%
Western Nebraska
TOMORROW AUG 13
Watching
20%
Eastern Colorado
FRIDAY AUG 14
Watching
<5%
Eastern Colorado
SATURDAY AUG 15
No Chase Planned
<5%
SUNDAY AUG 16
No Chase Planned
<5%
MONDAY AUG 17
No Chase Planned
<5%
TUESDAY AUG 18
No Chase Planned
<5%
WEDNESDAY AUG 19
No Chase Planned
<5%
THURSDAY AUG 20
No Chase Planned
<5%
FRIDAY AUG 21
No Chase Planned
<5%
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