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Football is Gonna Win Out Today

September 20, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Given the success of yesterday and my desire to have a full day at home in front of my TV watching football (namely the afternoon Washington/Dallas game), I have decided to sit out today.  CAMs are hit and miss on initiation, mainly in the timing, with many not popping storm(s) til at/after 7pm.  While the potential for a VERY discrete supercell exists, it will likely be fairly late, leaving a short daytime window to see much of anything.  Add to that the fact that most are initiating near the KS border, meaning it’s a nearly 3-hour haul just to get out there, and it would require a super late drive or an overnight stop.  All that weighs too heavy for a narrow window of daytime chasing.  If the tornado threat were higher, I could make a case, but I think it’s more of a hailer-type deal.  Certainly, a sunset tornado would be epic, but I am going to play the odds and say unlikely.

I have obligations tomorrow; a HUGE Washington Football game, and lets be real, yesterday was super awesome all on its own where I am completely satisfied and feel I earned my day on the couch in front of the TV.  I missed most of Week 1 Football last week for a sub-par chase venture, so I am going to take yesterday to the bank and enjoy my Sunday at home.

The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer or affiliated organizations.

Tony's 10-Day Chase Outlook

TODAY OCT 7
No Chase Planned
<5%
TOMORROW OCT 8
Likely Tropical Day
60%
Central Gulf Coast
FRIDAY OCT 9
Likely Tropical Day
>95%
Central Gulf Coast
SATURDAY OCT 10
Likely Tropical Day
>95%
Central Gulf Coast
SUNDAY OCT 11
Possible Chase Day
60%
Southeast US
MONDAY OCT 12
Possible Chase Day
40%
Southeast US
TUESDAY OCT 13
Watching
20%
TBD
WEDNESDAY OCT 14
Watching
20%
TBD
THURSDAY OCT 15
No Chase Planned
<5%
FRIDAY OCT 16
No Chase Planned
<5%
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