Eyeballing Central Kansas for a Low-End Chase?

May 7, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Very low end, probably a high-based hailer and perhaps some lightning… but it’s semi-close, and it’s on a Saturday, so I’m watching it.  This does not ring any sleeper bells, so I am literally just thinking about taking a shot on a low-key, semi-local chase that’s low stress and likely to generate SOMETHING to play with in decent chase terrain.  It’s looking pretty murky, uninspiring for chasing in the nearterm outside of this as cold fronts are crashing moisture back toward the Gulf.  Some images being circulated on social media are being a little overhyped for the general background pattern, but mesoscale accidents are always sneaky.  This is where the ‘chase every day’ mentality pays off, cause you’re already invested in being out, thus you by default plays these days.  Obviously I am a bit more selective, and distance verses risk plays heavily into my decision making, so something needs to stand out over the synoptic pattern with some notice to allow me the chance to pull those triggers.  Saturday will NOT be one of those days, I don’t think, but the idea of some low key chasing on a low-end system just feels good in my head, so we’ll see if I decide to pull the trigger.  The bottom line to this post, is yes, I am considering it, even if at less than 50% as of this entry.

The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer or affiliated organizations.

Tony's 10-Day Chase Outlook

TODAY MAY 15
Likely Chase Day
Northwest MO
TOMORROW MAY 16
Likely Chase Day
Central KS/Southern NE
SUNDAY MAY 17
Likely Chase Day
Eastern NE/Western IA
MONDAY MAY 18
Likely Chase Day
Missouri into Kansas
TUESDAY MAY 19
Possible Chase Day
Mid Mississippi Valley
WEDNESDAY MAY 20
Watching
TBD
THURSDAY MAY 21
Watching
TBD
FRIDAY MAY 22
No Chase Planned
SATURDAY MAY 23
No Chase Planned
SUNDAY MAY 24
No Chase Planned
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