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Mount Saint Hailens of Southeast Denver

August 14, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts, Post-Mortem

Another marginal setup overperforms in 2026.  The theme continues!  I mentioned yesterday ahead of the chase how there was potential for something, but I would ultimately scrap together whatever I was dealt.  Well, shocker; I got more than I bargined for.  Ended up stationing in Hudson, and never really got off the Front Range.  Initial storms developed in the Foothills southwest of Denver, and my initial storm intercept was a slow-moving meatball that ultimately went severe when copious, and I mean COPIOUS amounts of 1″ hail buried areas around Centennial.  I played the Metro area, which is rare given that you’re well committed due to traffic and logistics, but it was the right move as that storm was the story of the day, for sure.  I got in on the back side of the storm, getting a very small sample of the torrent of hail this thing dumped.  I documented 2-3″ deep accumulations with many yards just buried in hail.  Many yards didn’t look that way only cause a thick layer of tree debris was shredded over it.  Even came across hail drifts 3-feet deep along a roadside creek.  By that point, the eastern Plains stuff had fired, but was an hour-plus away and given the likelihood that most of that would be pulsey in nature and not likely to sustain, I decided to point myself back home, making a dinner stop in Greeley while some new development got going in Fort Collins.  I came out to a full-blown, slowly rotating supercell featuring a ragged wall cloud as it moved to Severance, then became a severe flood maker for the Eaton/Greeley areas where I spent the rest of the evening documenting flooding before arriving home shortly before 10pm.

Today has yet another marginal setup, one that honestly looks no different than yesterday, so I’d argue a similar ceiling could exist, but unless something blows up close to home, I probably will not make a day of it today.  Tomorrow looks a bit better on paper, and that may warrant some effort that exceeds what I am currently feeling about today, so I will keep track.  My, well, lets call it what it is, laziness, doesn’t eliminate me getting out if something within a short drive erupts later today, but honestly, the desire to watch Washington pre-season Football beats out a lower-end setup.  The good news, the 5pm kickoff would mean the game would likely be done if an evening storm fires near sunset, meaning lightning is totally on the table.  Hell, the second-half of yesterday’s festivities kicked off about that time within a VERY easy drive of my house, so if that were to repeat, I would probably invest the miles for that.

Tomorrow, while not a pretty setup by any means, probably on paper looks to be the second-best offering of this stretch of days.  Of course whether it puts out anything big or not remains to be seen, but using the “on paper” rule, I have to give it some credit, and with it being a weekend day, may allow for some caravanning company if a couple local friends get enticed.  After seeing what the last couple days have offered up, the enticement certainly should be there.  That said, we will see!

The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer or affiliated organizations.

Tony's 10-Day Chase Outlook

TODAY OCT 10
Likely Tropical Day
>95%
Central Gulf Coast
TOMORROW OCT 11
Possible Chase Day
60%
Southeast US
MONDAY OCT 12
Possible Chase Day
40%
Southeast US
TUESDAY OCT 13
Watching
20%
TBD
WEDNESDAY OCT 14
Watching
20%
TBD
THURSDAY OCT 15
No Chase Planned
<5%
FRIDAY OCT 16
No Chase Planned
<5%
SATURDAY OCT 17
No Chase Planned
<5%
SUNDAY OCT 18
No Chase Planned
<5%
MONDAY OCT 19
No Chase Planned
<5%
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