Tony's Blogbach, Between the Isobars

It’s been a minute since we’ve seen a multi-day stretch of outlooks from SPC.  If you ignore the calendar, you could pretend this is May, but nope, welcome to the first week of March!

I’m prepping here at home today to head out for that multi-day stint.  It should all get started with me on Wednesday, with four days back-to-back, basically in the same area.  Friday, right now as of this posting, looks like the biggest of the four days, which had been Wednesday as it looked a few days ago, but I’d definitely say there’s no question that Friday is the biggest day to watch.  Wednesday, which is concentrated from Dallas up into northwest Arkansas, I am not ruling out a play further north along the warm front toward Missouri/Illinois.  This has that feel of a sleeper day in the secondary target with the warm front and low in play across southeast Missouri into the southern half of Illinois.  We’ll see how that shakes out; but despite those thoughts, I am meh enough about Wednesday where I probably WON’T haul east for that given better setups (albeit conditionally better) exist further west starting Thursday.

Thursday, and particularly Friday, are the two days of my biggest note right now, and probably stand to be the two days I would venture out on if the forecast holds.  Thursday, again rather conditional, could be an interesting day if things come together in a timely manner.  Friday, which is progged as the biggest day, certainly does NOT have outbreak written on it as the difference key ingredients are a bit out of phase from each other, it certainly looks to be the higher end setup of the bunch.  But as the midweek system clears out, we’ll have to see what’s left in its wake and whether things rebound quickly enough to put Thursday in play.  Fortunately, as long Wednesday remains off the table for me, we can ride out a few sets of model runs before pulling the chase trigger, which would likely see us departing midday on Wednesday.

Til then, we watch and wait… an early kickoff to the season, but after this series of systems (which may extend into early next week), things look like they’ll simmer down.  So all eyes set on the first series of severe weather days of 2026.

In the midst of this mass gear update, I’ve found myself kinda living back in old times.  I remember in the early years, many trips to Ace Hardware, particularly the one in Lakewood off Alameda and Union, where I’d go in and buy various pieces to jimmy-rig my chase setup.  This included running to go and get a few screws, bolts, or nuts to finish various mounting rigs or whatever I was working on.  One of my funnier stories back in 2007, somewhere, I had to go in literally got a 7-cent screw.  I needed something for a mount I was customizing.  I would end up getting audited the following year after claiming a loss on my taxes (before I finally ‘hit it big’); in the audit, I was asked specifically about some of the equipment write-offs, and I presented one of the receipts for that 7-cent screw.  The auditor looked it, closed her notebook, and I was dismissed haha

Yesterday, I was back to my old ways; rolling into Ace a couple times yesterday for a couple parts to modify my old Filmtools Gripper camera rig.  About 10 years ago (holy shit, I’m old), I modified the default rig with a quick release plate that matched my Dolica tripod system so I could move cameras between the mount and the tripods with ease.  I’ve had that setup til now, but have always wanted to further modify it with a full tripod head as moving the camera required a two hand approach of releasing the gripper handle and then moving the camera to it’s preferred position.  While a minor issue, it was enough to be a pain as it would require reaching over to the passenger side of the car which wasn’t always the most comfortable (don’t worry, I was stopped).  But because the system wasn’t broken, I just never fixed it.  The other issue was needing an extension of the gripper since adding a full ball head would add several inches of height and thus not fit the camera on the current setup.  Well, when I started making all the swaps, including the new set of tripods, I finally decided to make the upgrade, getting a low profile ball head and finding the extension kit online.  Yesterday, I attached the ball head to the gripper mount and it’s waiting on the extension rod that should arrive HOPEFULLY by Monday, because we may be on the road as early as Tuesday if forecasts come to fruition (another post).

All that said, I spent more than 7-cents at Ace Hardware yesterday, but not by much.  The 3/8″ bolt was the ‘big spend’, but it worked and the rid looks great.  Once the extension arrives, I’ll give it the test run and I SHOULD be able to mount it higher on the windshield, which actually will free up the viewing a bit as the current location for the mount was kinda middle on the windshield; not a HUGE blind spot, but any obstructions are not good, so mounting the suction cup higher (likely up behind the rear-view mirror) will definitely free up some eyeball space in the middle of the windshield.  But alas, looking forward to finally being able to easily adjust the camera with one hand, and have it easily reachable from the driver seat (again, while stopped – I can’t believe I need to re-enforce that every time, but alas).

The irony of all this; last May I bought my Subaru Ascent, a much bigger ride than any previous ride I’ve had minus my mini-vans.  But with the bigger INTERIOR space, I have DOWNSIZED all interior setup quite a bit, and I am eager to get all this done and working as we’re about to head into a busy stretch, it looks.  Again, I’ll touch on all that over the weekend.  Just wanted to yap a bit this morning before I got on with my day as it’s been fun kinda resetting my chase setup a bit.  Kinda takes me back to the early years. 😀

If you take the screen shot of the forecast for Denver out of the present day context, you could easily confuse this for a week in mid-April.  Warm, windy, never below freezing… but nope, this is how we’ll end February 2026, and honestly, you could sub this in for a lot of the month.  It’s felt anything other than February.  Four times this month did Denver record a TRACE of snow, technically it will conclude the month with NO measurable snow, the first time since 2009 and I believe only the second time in history.

This has been the theme all winter, if we’re being real.  It’s been one of the less snowy seasons I can recall in many years of living here, and certainly the least snowy season here in my second stint.  It’s getting scary to think about the fire season ahead, and certainly nothing in the long range heading into the first week of March gives a lot of hope for any of that to change.  March and April get up there in terms of best snow months for the Colorado Front Range, with March being a biggie.  We’ll see if we get lucky or not, cause we need a couple big dumpers to make a dent in the deficit.  It’s dry, even the mountains have struggled this year (although last couple storms have done some good up there).  But we need it, and hopefully it’ll come in traditional March fashion.

What does this mean for chase season here?  Who knows… not an answer, but its the one you’re gonna get.  But I think the severe weather season is likely more dictated by recent moisture than the overall winter season.  For instance in 2023, we had one of the most active Colorado tornado seasons on record coming out of one of the wettest Mays on record.  Obviously we had a much snowier winter ahead of that, but it’s no coincidence the season in late May through August was gangbusters after a very wet streak (that went well into June).  So one could surmise if we get a good bit of moisture in March and April, it could certainly fuel a bigger season than what one would think coming out of this dry spell here.  But only time will tell.  I’m not prepared to make any forecast on the Colorado storm season right now; I’m just trying to find some hope of impactful snow on for the eastern half of the state.  Hell, I’d take a long, steady rain at this point.  We can’t be choosey right now.  But if this all keeps going in the direction is has been, the only storms we’ll be talking about this Spring and Summer are firestorms.

So the February 19 chase was my first of 2026, which means I am officially 30 seasons deep into my career!  This means I have chased at least once every year since it all began in 1997.  Another streak which I am looking to build on is having seen at least ONE tornado each year since 2003.  The Covid year, 2000, nearly ended that streak, but fortunately I landed a puny landspout and a half-ass birdfart.  While neither will ever make the wall, they count.  Covid year was a slow season, fortunately, but I managed to keep the streak alive by the skin of my tornadic teeth.

Another test post, this one for the tripod swap I am doing as I revamp my gear set.  I am upgrading my 10-12 year old Dolica tripod set to Neewer, a brand I have come to like over the years.  I have used their camera bags with great success for the last few seasons, and have found their other products to be really good.  I am also downsizing the collection from 5 to 3, with two higher end tripods for my main shooters and one for travel.

I have never been a expensive tripod guy (i.e. Manfrotto)… I beat the hell out of my tripods and I just can’t, in my brain, justify the cost of the Manfrotto brand.  Dolica was a solid brand for me, like I said, a couple of those tripods were purchased back in 2014-2015, so they got some life.  And honestly, they could continue to be used, but they’ve developed quirks from some damage that is more nuisance than use-breaking.  But the time has come, and it’s coming in the midst of a major gear overhaul I am undertaking right now (more on that once the dust settles).  So it just seemed like the right time to make the change.  Fortunately, I am recouping a bit of cash back on these, nothing to set the world on fire, but that’s always nice to pass along the old gear.  Again, totally useable, and the guy I sold a couple of them to yesterday was telling me his plans for them.  The various parts have varying degrees of good use left, so these may find alternative uses for someone else.  But alas, they’ve reached the end of their service with me.