Waking up to a little hatched yellow egg on the tornado prob map this morning… surprising… YES… particularly when you look at yesterday’s storm reports that came within a 5% hatched tornado prob… there were ZERO tornado reports in that area yesterday, including a late tornado watch. In fact, there were SEVEN total reports, all wind, and two of which were in Vegas, the Nevada one, not the New Mexico one that was in said tornado watch.
I don’t see it; I haven’t been completely on board with a higher-end tornado threat. I think I said yesterday this was definitely a 5% setup, but even the hatched was a bit surprising. Now we have a 10% hatched, which is usually the jinx, but I still don’t buy into that. But alas, we gonna play it all the same. I’m waking my arse up here in Hays, gonna load up, and hit the road, probably gonna take the scenic route down I-135 toward Wichita, get myself east of where I think things are gonna fire. Pratt was my target mentioned last night, and I still think that’s viable, so I will keep tabs into the afternoon and see if there is a need to adjust, which I would guess would be further south. Morning CAMs do give some reason to sink south into Oklahoma, maybe down toward Enid. It’s a four-hour haul from here, which assuming I am rolling by 9am, puts me down there by 1pm (19z). Plenty of time.
We’ll see…