Wild Weekend Starts Today

May 15, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts

Good morning from Columbia, MO… packing up and loading up, bout ready to push myself back to the west a bit to set up for today; nothing high-end today, more along the lines of ‘since I am here’; a lowish-end, damaging wind cluster of storms expected to fire late afternoon/early evening across southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa and push southeast into northwest Missouri.  How much effort I put in to today remains to be seen; today never was a major setup, and that hasn’t really changed.  But I am here, and was here by default, so we’re plotting for it either way.

Tomorrow (Saturday) starts what I would say are the upper-end days… tomorrow being the lower of the next three.  Sunday and Monday in particular, both look high-end, and some of the AI outputs for Monday are maxed out across, you guessed it, Iowa.  Saturday will be a haul across Kansas on I-70, probably serving focus on the areas along and just north of the KS/NE border on the western ends of the states.  Then it’s a burn across I-80 into eastern Nebraska for Sunday, then we’ll head to Iowa for Monday.  Tuesday remains viable, a mop-up day as I called it, and then barring something significant happening midweek, may try and squeeze a few days at home.  What looked like a pretty solid, consistent stretch may break up a bit.  Am definitely NOT terribly upset with the prospects of spending a couple days at home between this stint and the next one, but we’ll see.  Tuesday may not even warrant the effort, but it is far enough away and buried deep behind much higher-end setups, so not going to stress about that yet.

So yeah, we’re rocking and rolling… gonna finish loading up and point myself west.  Hoping for a much less eventful trip today as yesterday, yet again, I ended up seeing another horrendous wreck, this time east of Kansas City on I-70 near Odessa.  Seems like every trip I take, I see one of these… never forget, the most dangerous part of chasing isn’t the weather, it’s the driving… be safe out there, y’all!

The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer or affiliated organizations.

Tony's 10-Day Chase Outlook

TODAY AUG 24
Possible Chase Day
50%
Nebraska Panhandle
TOMORROW AUG 25
Likely Chase Day
60%
Eastern CO/Northwest KS
WEDNESDAY AUG 26
Watching
20%
Colorado Front Range
THURSDAY AUG 27
No Chase Planned
<5%
FRIDAY AUG 28
No Chase Planned
<5%
SATURDAY AUG 29
No Chase Planned
<5%
SUNDAY AUG 30
No Chase Planned
<5%
MONDAY AUG 31
No Chase Planned
<5%
TUESDAY SEP 1
No Chase Planned
<5%
WEDNESDAY SEP 2
No Chase Planned
<5%
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