For weather nerds everywhere, next week continues to be a thing… yesterday I posted about the Euro and it’s rather optimistic outputs, and the two runs that followed kept up with the higher totals (albeit lower). Credit where it’s due, it is at least being consistent despite no other models even hinting at such totals. But, most DO some SOME snow potential there along the Front Range, so regardless of what snowfall model camp you land in, I’d say the confidence in the Front Range getting their first accumulating snow (which for the record is a measly 0.1″) is growing. Now, I’m still WAY low in confidence of a significantly impactful event out of that, but there is plenty to look at between now and then, so we’ll keep tabs. Bottom line, NO, I do NOT buy into a BIG snowstorm at this point as very few ensembles/other models show anything close to the Euro, but I am growing in confidence that the northern Front Range will see the first flakes of the season next weekend.
But, there is a twist(er) that comes ahead of next weekend’s whatever-the-snow it will be…
That is the supercell composite for Thursday, November 20, which coincidentally happens to be my 46th Birthday… most chasers, whether they outright say it or not, want to capture a birthday tornado. For a lot whose birthdays fall in the prime of tornado season, that’s probably a year-1 win for a lot of them. For those of us outside that, it’s a bit tougher. Now, I’ve had some success (including a few major hits) in November in the past (Nov 2011, Nov 2013, Nov 2015, Nov 2022, Nov 2024). But the closest to my actual birthday was in 2013 during the big IL/IN outbreak on the 17th. The southwest Kansas 90-minute wedge in 2015 was on the 16th, so some birthday week success, but never on my birthday. In fact, a quick scan shows I have never actually chased ON my birthday. So this COULD be a first in multiple regards should this come to pass. Now, this is a GFS only shpeel at this point, but that lead system next week, if timed out, COULD offer up some chase potential, and if the GFS miraculously kept the high plains in play, it would be a no-brainer to go out for. Heck, I was even able to cherry-pick a weak tornado sounding out of that in eastern Colorado, and believe me when I tell you that would literally be all I need to check the Birthday Tornado off the bucketlist.
My MAIN goal in 2026, as I’ve said too many times, was documenting my 500th tornado, and I did… always on the list every season is that elusive birthday tornado, November 20, and if something within reason can materialize, and as an added present from Ma-Nature, be relatively close to home, then it may be worth trying to add to the 30th season magic to see if I couldn’t pull off a career-long bucketlist item. And while it would be dreamy to pull that off in my adult home state, anywhere in the western/central plains would entice me to spend the 46th trolling the highways.
IF… and big IF, but still an IF… If that were to happen, it would result in a couple milestones… that would be my 63rd chase log of the year, which would put this season at #1 all-time for most chase logs in a year. It would also most likely put me over 40,000 chase miles for the year, which would be the second time in my career I have crossed that threshold, but still only be second most miles ever (the current place).
Lots coming up weather-wise next week… we’ll see what we unwrap as it gets closer, and you can better believe there will be a lot of discussion here over the next week and change.