Tony's Blogbach, Between the Isobars

Equals what exactly?  Truth is, we won’t have the answer to that equation til this time tomorrow.  The ceiling on this event is as high as any setup this year, but its 2026 and this year likes to do nothing with it.  That’s good, really it is.  No one wants to see these high ceiling events pan out.  But just because we want that doesn’t mean it will.  One has to go, the law of averages says so.  But will it be tomorrow?  That’s the question.

Chatter across the web varies from tornado outbreak of the year (a bar not terribly high, mind you), to a messy mess of low instability storms in the wake of whatever blows through overnight.  You’re here reading this now asking, “Tony, what is your thought?”  The answer… haha if I knew that, I’d be making a lot more money than I do lol

Sadly, there is no answer.  Sure, there are some incredibly hefty ingredients in play if you look at the models.  Just about any clock within the warm sector on your model of choice will pull a PDS Tornado sounding.  The numbers in some cases are off the charts.  Real potent over for these storms to bake.  But there are buts, BIG BUTS, and I cannot lie.  Morning MCS comes through, maybe bigger than anticipated, which would relocate that over further south.  Does it hang around too long?  Maybe not enough instability.  The dynamics are strong, super strong, thus you need to put some beefy joules with it in order for those storms not to get ripped apart before they get established.  That is a real concern tomorrow, one that, in my opinion, offers the bigger fail mode than anything the overnight stuff will bring.  Albeit related, it sucks the instability out which sets the stage for the dynamics to rip the updrafts apart.  So yeah, I guess writing that out, one could make a case that both are equally as important.

That said, I sit here in Springfield, Illinois; probably a target all on its own, so we’ll see what we awaken to, MCS, etc, and decide.  A lot of the reason for basing here tonight was to allow that adjustment tomorrow in a timely manner and not be hauling in from three hours away trying to assess that on the fly.  Tomorrow very well could be one of those ‘stay at the hotel’ days.

I dunno, I can’t get a feel on what I think about tomorrow.  It’s a VERY high ceiling event, one that if realized, will be among the biggest events of the year.  But it has big fail modes that can completely make this wiff on many accounts.  Do I think there will be storms?  Yes. Do I think they’ll be severe?  Yes.  Do I think they’ll be SIGNIFICANTLY severe?  Probably.  Do I think it’ll be a tornado outbreak? Possibly.  The numbers exist on the paper, so we’ll see how they’ll come into play.

Sleep awaits… may be a long day regardless.  We shall see…

Wednesday is >95% for chasing… I remain in Columbia as I just decided to keep things simple as opposed to packing, moving, and unpacking; just keep my room and hang out.  Maybe, just maybe I will lean my way east tomorrow, but given all I have seen, just about any target for Wednesday is easily well within range of here, so I may keep my home here and depart Wednesday morning.

That being said, I am less than 20% for Tuesday, which continues to shift further north and east, and not looking great to begin with, so it was a long shot for me to do it, but grows longer as the drive to do so gets longer.  Wednesday will likely be the sole day of this trip, and it certainly has all the earmarks of a significant severe weather day.  March dynamics combined with June instability.  On paper, it’s big.  Just look at the sounding I pulled off the 12z NAM for central Indiana northwest of Indianapolis; likely very embellished by the model, but that’s some damn big numbers and a hodograph that can’t even stay on the page.

The big question remains, what is the storm mode?  That’s gonna make the difference between tornadoes and damaging winds with embedded tornadoes.  Still, the T-word is going to be a factor, just really depends on storm mode to determine how many and of what severity.  This will be a widespread, impactful system regardless, likely stretching as far back as Kansas all the way into Indiana and Ohio.  Storms will be moving to, you don’t get slow storm speeds out of March dynamics.

So yeah, all on track to be out Wednesday… will probably start to hone in on exactly where through the day tomorrow, and I’ll decide if I need to lean east tomorrow at all.  So stay tuned.

Further out, just for mention, maybe back to some lower, yet worthy high plains setups into the weekend so something to keep tabs on as I return west after Wednesday.

I’ve been lacking in the blog department because I literally haven’t had time to myself since June started.  I chased, flew to Chicago for Pokemon GoFest, flew home, then hours later was on the road for the trip that was suppose to conclude today, but has now been extended due to a high-end setup that’s coming into focus for Wednesday.  I will be out likely through Thursday at least, just depending on the drive home that awaits at the conclusion of that event.

Today, Sunday, is a down day here in Columbia where last night’s chase concluded after being chased all day by the storm we targeted.  This has been a four chase, six tornado trip, including multiple tornadoes on Wednesday in Missouri which the big one aired live on AccuWeather, my first legit time doing that this year.  The six tornadoes got me to 490 on my #ChaseTo500, so now within 10 with half of June to go.  Wednesday’s setup COULD easily be the same general areas as last Wednesday, but the question remains whether it’s a discrete supercell kinda day or a big-ass line kinda day.  Too far out to call.  But it’s an opportunity, and it will present the chance for something significant, so if you’re reading this and NOT a chaser in the Midwest, take that as an early warning that this coming Wednesday may be an active one.

I have popped the chase placeholders for the 2026 season for the four chases so far on this trip.  I’m WELL behind write-ups, and perhaps I square out one or two tomorrow after I land wherever I ultimately decide.  Right now, I am leaning toward St. Louis, a simple two hour drive from here, but I am eyeballing the low, and I mean LOW potential of an eastern Illinois chase on Tuesday, which I honestly might partake in given it’s low-end potential and likely lack of too many cars on the road, so we’ll see if I can scrum up enough motivation to do so.

Honestly, this has hands down been my favorite trip of the season.  Chicago was super nice, very low key with a TON of walking, and good time with my wife catching thousands of Pokemon across the city, and I came into this trip well rested and refreshed, my head in as clean a space as it’s been in a while, and the success of this trip along with the number of people I’ve been able to share it with in various forms has just been wonderful, so it’s been a nice breath of fresh air.

Even today, I am feeling pretty good, and have been super productive.  I got my laundry caught up, did some supplies shopping to stretch out for extra week on the road, enjoyed the Rockies scoring 23 runs in their game this afternoon while I tended to a few errands and caught on some computer work.  With the rest of the evening before me, will probably be pretty lowkey, and tomorrow I will get up and head east to wherever makes sense.

So I am alive, as alive as I’ve been for a while this season, and looking forward to what the next few days have to offer.  Meanwhile, stay tuned to my Facebook page… I’ve been doing pretty good about posting updates in the field, and I’m very happy with the exposure it’s been getting, so go be part of the ride!

While early on the calendar this year, we’re still in the climatological peak of severe weather season, and there is barely a storm around.  Those who ‘have’ to be out are running back and forth from Texas to South Dakota, many heading down to Texas today.  Ten-plus years ago, that be me… not now haha In fact, I am somewhat content with the down time, albeit weird during THIS holiday, which has usually been one of the busiest times for me.  Not this time, and it looks like the down stretch will likely be an extended one, minus a couple low-end backyarders possible at the end of this week.  Beyond that, nothing in the long-range gives any indication of a pattern shift.  Lots of northwest flow across the central part of the country, likely meaning MCS season up north.  Not usually on my list of things to do to chase, so we’ll see if that amounts to anything that gets me out.  I’m in Chicago the first weekend in June, something unheard of for me to plan something NON-CHASE related during that time of year, but right now, it looks like I am going to enjoy that weekend with not a whole lot to miss.  In fact, I’d argue that I may be in line for storms up that way by default haha  The question remains, what does the middle/back-half of June serve up.  Typically these wonky patterns favor an active pattern for us along the front range; not necessarily for tornadoes, but stormy none-the-less.  Hailers aren’t out of the question with the instability, flooding storms also find their way in.  Indications are for a pretty active monsoon season here, so maybe that’ll offer some lightning ops.  Otherwise, a lot of day-of looks will determine how often I head out.  Holding out hope that the central/northern plains offer some opportunities later in the month.  But right now, nothing I can point to.  That said, lots of look backs on years prior; easily the busiest stretch of days during the chase season for me in years past.  Ain’t gonna be adding anything to that this year, though…

The #ChaseTo500 continues with two more tick marks after yesterday’s pretty solid Colorado chase.  That puts the count to TEN tornadoes so far in 2026, leaving me 16 away from the 500 mark.  But of those ten, the only tornado to really speak of was the Minnesota tornadoes back on April 13.  Everything else I have seen have barely counted as tornadoes.  The two I saw yesterday in Colorado, neither were slamdunk touchdowns; the first, a rather pretty funnel, was confirmed by others that were positioned a bit better as I had just enough of a terrain rise between me and the tornado where it blocked the ground.  The second tornado was another birdfart, a low LCL fingers-to-the-ground type deal where a rotating lowering was just low enough where little clouds would occasionally dip down to ground level.  This, at least visually, was more apparent, but still a pretty meh sighting overall.  Fortunately, neither tornado were strong and did any damage, so yay for that.

Despite a solid outing yesterday, and even as the chase itself met, if not slightly exceeded expectations, 2026 thus far has been very lackluster, and sometimes frustrating for me.  I’ve left a lot on the table, many of the big days either failed to reach their ceilings, or I botched up the day with poor decisions/positioning.  There really haven’t been a TON of high-quality tornadoes outside the Braman/Enid day, so it’s not like I am missing out on a bunch, but the slim number of days thus far have not worked for me to this point.  It’s the grind that is sometimes.  Obviously I came into this season, #30, with the hope that I could hit the 500 tornado milestone in this season.  While certainly well within range, I need to hope June offers some opportunities, or just dump a large majority on a day like Akron 2023.  Sixteen is a large number going into the back third of the peak season, so I’m hopeful I can get back in the game for the opportunities that should present themselves.

The moisture return to eastern Colorado, while not drought-busting as I have said before, is very well timed.  An El Nino tends to support an active pattern for us here locally, so the combination of the two should yield some opportunities in the weeks ahead.  Yesterday, while lackluster in the tornado-department, did yield my first Colorado tornadoes of the season.  But like the majority of the tornadoes I have seen this year, they are fence-scrapers.

Should be a quiet couple of days… some low-end potential exists early/middle of next week, but nothing I am terribly gung-ho for at this time.  We’ll see how it shakes out over the Holiday Weekend.