Tony's Blogbach, Between the Isobars

Target continues to shift further east today; a nice break given I start here in Kansas City.  Morning surface analysis shows absolute trash dewpoints this morning across northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.  And you can see on the surface map above, there aren’t favorable wind directions to bring up those juicier numbers.  You’ll likely see SOME rise out there, but not enough, even by high plains standards, to make a viable target out there.  I have NO IDEA why SPC maintained their 5% tornado probs out there, but I would be shocked if they were not removed in the 1300z outlook.

I still stand by my idea last night that today is not a tornado day… I could see them adding a 5% somewhere in the northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska and adjacent areas east.  And that’s what I am targeting right now, somewhere in the Belleville/Seneca/Nebraska City/Geneva square.  Also worth watching is south of Des Moines where hirez CAMS continue to pop a complex of storms.  Again, probably a more messy solution in that area, but that seems to be hotspot #2.  Again, nothing about today jumps off the page at me, and I still believe any tornado reports will be low in numbers and likely not too exciting, but I would almost (ALMOST) venture to say that we will see nothing tornadic west of US-183 today minus the off chance of some rando landspout, but assuming the dewpoints out that way can even get into the mid-40s, you’re still likely seeing a spread of 40-degrees out there, meaning said spouts would have to be to the level of my closing day tornado in 2021.

So I will await the 13z Day 1, and put $10 down on the western 5% being removed.  I’d probably take a low bet on odds that they MAY add a 5% somewhere further east.  Right now, given all I am seeing, my primary target is going to be northeast Kansas east of US-81, despite the CAMs insistence on much higher storm chances/coverage further east along I-35 in southern Iowa.  I think if there is a place for a tornado, it’ll be if an isolated storm can interact with the wind shift there is deeper moisture.  But all signs point to a pretty messy setup regardless.  But we’re here to play, so play I will…

That said, a shower and a milking of the checkout here in KC seem appropriate this morning.  It’s an easy 3-4 hour haul back toward Belleville, so assuming an 11am departure and enough fuel to get to Belleville, I should be able to do it easily in one sitting.  That said, being up at 5am was a useless endeavor, so another hour of sleep may sneak its way in before I load up and head out.

Tomorrow is likely NOT a tornado day… I will just get that out of the way right now… yes, there probably will be a couple that sneak their way into the reports, but overall, I think tomorrow is likely gonna be a damaging wind and hail day.  Today, I wussed out; nothing about today was highly anticipated, and most of the better parameters shifted well north and east, and anything I was going to get on early evening was taking me the opposite direction I needed to go, so I threw a couple chips on some convection that tried to fire west of Kansas City, but nothing took hold.  No loss on that.

Biggest issue tomorrow seems pretty easy to spot, marginal moisture at the surface.  Even the Colorado play is going to struggle to get to what I would consider a minimum dewpoint.  If I were coming from the west (home), I would probably give it a bit more attention, but I am coming in from the east, and thus my eyes are drawn to the I-80 Central Nebraska target.  Models have been consistent with that area, showing some hefty supercells developing, likely high based with big hail given the spreads of 30+ degrees.  Colorado will see similar spreads, maybe slightly more given dewpoints progged in the upper 40s out there.  But currently, I do not see enough in the Colorado target to warrant the rolling across the entire state of Kansas or Nebraska for.  Also worth a mention, a potential play in southeast Nebraska, north of Kansas City.  Not giving that too much at the moment, but it DOES exist.  But that said, I am going to aim for Grand Island by 3pm.

Sunday continues to be eastern Nebraska north of I-80 (the NAMNEST takes a HUGE dump all over Sunday, FYI: probably why it is being retired later this year – haha).  No significant changes in my thoughts on that right now.  I have coordinated with Ed to have him meet me in GI as we’ll saddle up together for the Sunday/Monday plays (maybe Tuesday if warranted).  Monday has a couple potential plays; still earmarked as the biggest of the two headliner days, but has TWO potential targets.  The first and most obvious would be the Iowa play, likely seeing a lot of storms up that way.  The lesser, secondary target, but equally as volatile, could be southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma.  While not as quick to get to Monday, it can easily be done if that one looks to be a solid get. Assuming we get a couple storms in that environment, they’ll likely be less overall verses up north, which one of the Iowa failure modes would be too many storms.  Too early to tell, too early to worry, but know it’s a thing I will float back to as I look ahead to Monday.  Tuesday is nothing more than a mop-up day, which if we stay north on Monday, may have higher odds we play the northern target in Illinois.  Anything south would be in play, but to a lesser extent.  It would NOT surprise me to see Sunday end up being the bigger day from a chaser perspective, but too much on the plate Monday to say that with any confidence.

So yeah, some late evening thoughts on the days ahead as I watch another abysmal Rockies baseball game.  They’re losing to Arizona 9 to 1 in the top of the 9th, and were down 6 to 0 before they ever even came up to bat in the first.  Fortunately this will end soon, and I will turn myself in to a pumpkin, get up reasonably early, and hike myself up I-29 into Nebraska, then cut over to Grand Island to set up for tomorrow’s hail chase day.

BTW, snow potential along the lower Front Range locations has all but vanished… not terribly concerned with this particular event for the Front Range.  Mountains oughta do pretty good, and still looks like a good heavy-moisture system for northern Colorado, so adding some tornado juice to the region regardless.  Now I just do not have to worry about covering the gardens.

See ya on the road tomorrow!  We go for real then!

Good morning from Columbia, MO… packing up and loading up, bout ready to push myself back to the west a bit to set up for today; nothing high-end today, more along the lines of ‘since I am here’; a lowish-end, damaging wind cluster of storms expected to fire late afternoon/early evening across southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa and push southeast into northwest Missouri.  How much effort I put in to today remains to be seen; today never was a major setup, and that hasn’t really changed.  But I am here, and was here by default, so we’re plotting for it either way.

Tomorrow (Saturday) starts what I would say are the upper-end days… tomorrow being the lower of the next three.  Sunday and Monday in particular, both look high-end, and some of the AI outputs for Monday are maxed out across, you guessed it, Iowa.  Saturday will be a haul across Kansas on I-70, probably serving focus on the areas along and just north of the KS/NE border on the western ends of the states.  Then it’s a burn across I-80 into eastern Nebraska for Sunday, then we’ll head to Iowa for Monday.  Tuesday remains viable, a mop-up day as I called it, and then barring something significant happening midweek, may try and squeeze a few days at home.  What looked like a pretty solid, consistent stretch may break up a bit.  Am definitely NOT terribly upset with the prospects of spending a couple days at home between this stint and the next one, but we’ll see.  Tuesday may not even warrant the effort, but it is far enough away and buried deep behind much higher-end setups, so not going to stress about that yet.

So yeah, we’re rocking and rolling… gonna finish loading up and point myself west.  Hoping for a much less eventful trip today as yesterday, yet again, I ended up seeing another horrendous wreck, this time east of Kansas City on I-70 near Odessa.  Seems like every trip I take, I see one of these… never forget, the most dangerous part of chasing isn’t the weather, it’s the driving… be safe out there, y’all!

The May-a-Thon Adventure begins Friday… today I’ll be eastbound toward KC and that leaves me sitting pretty to kick things off tomorrow afternoon. Low-end setup with models back and forth on daytime development north of KC. Saturday begins the ramp up, with Sunday and Monday on paper the headliners.

Busy stretch… but excited to be back at it.  See ya under a storm… if not Friday, then most likely Saturday haha

After a relatively quiet start to May, things are looking to pick back up.  SPC has already highlighted both weekend days, and it would not shock me to see additional outlooks starting as early as Friday and continuing well into next week.  I will likely deploy for the weekend setups, and once out, will remain out until a series of down days take hold.  The pattern is definitely shifting into active May mode, and thus we may be looking at a trip involving a laundry day haha

Tomorrow is a car day… I took a rock to the windshield that’s now got a growing crack.  Fortunately my Ascent purchase included a once-a-year windshield replacement for road debris (NOT hail), so I get to NOT spend $1,500 to get that replaced tomorrow.  If hail was part of the coverage, I’d be more inclined to wait it out, but given the conditions of the agreement, it’s best I do it now.  Not sure when I took the rock impact, but I noticed it Sunday extending outside my windshield mount.  Also, my local Subaru dealership tossed me a coupon for a $30 oil change, so I’ll get that done as well just to reset ahead of this trip despite it being about 1,000 miles early.  But I am not about to pass up a local $30 oil change verses $100+ on the road, which I will easily surpass the mileage deadline within the first couple days.

Anywoo, just wanted to quick jot here while I was waiting for some things to approve for the piece I am doing today… speaking of today…

HAPPY 22 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THIS DAY…