Tony's Blogbach, Between the Isobars

As of today, 8/16, I sit at 30,991 miles, which currently sits at 8th highest all time.  With what likely will be a 1000-1500 mile round trip after Monday/Tuesday, I will likely break into my top 5 highest single-season miles.  And while unlikely I reach upper 30K, a Top 3 ending is definitely plausible.  Below are the season stats for the years that rank ahead of 2026..

#8 – 2026: 30,991
#7 – 2025: 31,018 (28 away)
#6 – 2010: 31,676 (686 away)
#5 – 2016: 31,835 (845 away)
#4 – 2022: 33,387 (2,397 away)
#3 – 2007: 33, 934 (2,944 away)
#2 – 2011: 36, 404 (5,414 away)
#1 – 2023: 42,360 (11,370 away)

Obviously I could jump to #7 with a roll around the block for a storm locally, but with an easy 1,000 mile ahead of me, I foresee sitting at #5 by midweek.  And from there, probably only a single, multi-day long-distance trip to get into 4th.

An interesting note; four of the six seasons with AccuWeather have cracked the top 10 (2022, 2023, 2025, 2026), with 2021 being a half-season split between Wichita and Colorado.  The 2024 season was my lowest of the group, so that basically means 4 of the 5 FULL TIME AccuWeather chasing seasons have made it into the top 10.  A lot of that likely being contributed to by the amount of long-distance, southeast region chases I embarked on, but a heavy emphasis on storm chasing has definitely helped rack up the miles, and 2026 will likely be in the top half of the AccuWeather era years.

As for the rest of this season, I would put money on a top 3 finish.  It is HIGHLY unlikely I hit #1 as by this time in 2023, I was sitting at 38,704 miles, well ahead of where I am same time this year, a nearly 8,000 mile advantage.  However, the #2 2011 season, I was at 32,690 at this point, and it was due to a busy fall season I added to that.  Worth noting as well that I was also residing in Colorado back that year as well, so the out-and-back would be very similar to now.  And for the record to wrap up the top 3, I am nearly 3,000 miles ahead the 2007 pace, which also saw a high-amount of September/October chasing, including two 1,000 mile ventures.

Career-total-wise… I will eclipse 570,000 miles, which means I will be within a long-shot of cracking 600K career-miles next year, which will be season 31, and in May, will be 30 years to the day from my first chasing in 1997.  Anything I can do to exceed 570K the rest of the year will definitely make 600K next year much more attainable, so we’ll see how the rest of this year goes.  On the calendar, I still have four FULL months, plus the back-half of August, but things will calm down considerably heading into the fall, so most of the rest of the year’s miles after August winds down will likely come from a couple spot chases and/or a few Midwest/Mid-South ventures.

Another thing to note, the many back-and-forth from Colorado the Midwest (primarily Illinois), which definitely put the miles-per-log much higher than many of the other top seasons.  The log total up til this point in the year, 47, is about 10-12 logs LESS than the other seasons ahead of this that are roughly the same mileage.  That puts my average-miles-per-log at 659, with only three other seasons ahead of me sitting above 600.  This year’s average-per-log is third most, behind 2022 and 2023, both those again being AccuWeather years.  That translates to a lot of long-distance driving this year, more so than other years prior.

One last fun note… I moved to Wichita, Kansas in March 2018 and left in early May of 2021.  During that time, I logged a TOTAL of 30,309 miles, which includes the three 2021 chases that were started in Wichita prior to my relocation.  I have done more miles this year than I did my entire time in Wichita.  Yes, part of that was because I didn’t have to drive as far for chasing, but that was also largely due to the fact I was mainly restricted to Kansas, which as we all remember, had some of the slowest severe weather seasons in history when I was there.  But the heavy presence in Kansas with little out-of-state ventures factored VERY heavily into that equation.  But regardless, for the third season since leaving Kansas, I have put on more miles in a single year than I did my entire stint in Wichita.

So yeah, expect a top 5 ranking upon my return home mid-week… a true testament to the work that’s gone into this year.  And again, if you’re just looking at the paper, seeing the numbers, you’d think I’m having a career year, but the results have been anything but.  We’ll see how the last part of 2026 shakes out, and it’s still up in the air as to whether the run at 500 tornadoes can happen before the calendar turns over to 2027.

Yesterday was another bleh day for me, all the while Denver took another day on the chin.  I just wasn’t feeling it, and despite those feelings, I did push myself out the door to make a short couple hour round-trip on some storms that fired along the northern Front Range.  Other than a couple clouds pictures and a couple bouts with some torrential rain, my best views came much later in the evening as the golden hour set in and offered up a full rainbow and brightly lit storm backsides.  Denver, particularly southeast Denver, once again took the brunt of storms, and hind-sight says I should’ve just got a hotel there for two nights, perhaps a third if today pans out, but I have already written off any real plans to chase minus a quick outing for something that may pop within a handful of minutes of home.

As for today, a lower end setup exists, that will inevitable over-perform somewhere, but I would hunch that being further south, maybe even beyond the Denver area.  With some at-home stuff to do, and a small trip planned for early week for Nebraska/Iowa chasing, I am going to keep it pretty close to home today.  Unless, like I said, something fires in my immediate vicinity.

As for the week ahead, Monday and Tuesday are target days with Monday being central Nebraska and Tuesday being slightly east of there.  Both days look pretty solid for chasing, so I do have some excitement to see what comes about out of those.  They’re not major severe weather days by any stretch, but a couple good storms oughta be part of the equation.  I will leave for central Nebraska early tomorrow morning, no need to make trails tonight.  I will get packed up and ready, so all I have to do is load the cooler and head out.  Tuesday will be a little further east, but no biggie as I will likely end up somewhere on I-80 in the eastern half of Nebraska by day’s end, which will set me up nicely for Tuesday, wherever that ultimately ends up.

So yeah, kinda of excited for the next couple days.  This week has been busy, with four days in a row of chasing, but the latter two were pretty meh for me, but I take the blame where it’s due, I wasn’t terribly ambitious for either day, thus I got what my effort warranted even as I was hoping for something closer to home.  Maybe today will bridge the gap if something teases me out for a look, but otherwise, my eyes are looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday.

That was my view on southbound Weld County Parkway heading toward Keenesburg as a seven-minute landspout tornado was ongoing in Denver proper north of Dicks Sporting Goods Park.  That was pretty much all today really produced, but that is a pretty big production.  No, a landspout, one that was likely didn’t do any damage, isn’t a headliner in 99% of cases, but one in the metro definitely moves up a couple notches.  Beyond that, sporatic reports of street flooding was about it.  My storms, while advised for landspout potential, all rained themselves out pretty quick, and I ended up in Brighton in traffic and unable to really get to anything in time.  I turned tail and came home when it was clear nothing was worth sticking out for.  Frustrated in the moment as one often is when they are seeing reports of a landspout active in Denver, but the day as a whole was pretty much what I thought it would be if you take the spout out of the equation.

No changes in my thoughts for tomorrow… still likely to venture out, somewhere north of CO-86.  No major changes in the ambient setup minus an increase in dynamics, so would suspect a similar evolution and initiation of storms that we’ve seen the last few days, so it may be a east side of Denver start, then follow out east until its not worth following anymore.  With better dynamics in play, severe weather a bigger threat tomorrow than the last couple days, both of which did present some hefty storms, so I have reason to think we could see the best (or second best) chase day of this four-day stretch.  No tornado risk in the afternoon SPC Day 2, and I don’t see that changing, even if landspouts get a nod from the local offices.  Still a messy setup even with the better dynamics, so not a tornado day by any stretch.  But eeking out a spout or two, not gonna rule it out.

Sunday is another marginal day, likely the last one of the stretch, which will close this five-day stint.  I won’t rule out a backyard chase Sunday, but if I am being honest, I have not looked in great detail, but I would put my chase chances very low as of this entry.  It appears to be a southern Colorado play, and a marginal setup four hour plus drive one-way on a Sunday probably won’t get a yes out of me.

Another marginal setup overperforms in 2026.  The theme continues!  I mentioned yesterday ahead of the chase how there was potential for something, but I would ultimately scrap together whatever I was dealt.  Well, shocker; I got more than I bargined for.  Ended up stationing in Hudson, and never really got off the Front Range.  Initial storms developed in the Foothills southwest of Denver, and my initial storm intercept was a slow-moving meatball that ultimately went severe when copious, and I mean COPIOUS amounts of 1″ hail buried areas around Centennial.  I played the Metro area, which is rare given that you’re well committed due to traffic and logistics, but it was the right move as that storm was the story of the day, for sure.  I got in on the back side of the storm, getting a very small sample of the torrent of hail this thing dumped.  I documented 2-3″ deep accumulations with many yards just buried in hail.  Many yards didn’t look that way only cause a thick layer of tree debris was shredded over it.  Even came across hail drifts 3-feet deep along a roadside creek.  By that point, the eastern Plains stuff had fired, but was an hour-plus away and given the likelihood that most of that would be pulsey in nature and not likely to sustain, I decided to point myself back home, making a dinner stop in Greeley while some new development got going in Fort Collins.  I came out to a full-blown, slowly rotating supercell featuring a ragged wall cloud as it moved to Severance, then became a severe flood maker for the Eaton/Greeley areas where I spent the rest of the evening documenting flooding before arriving home shortly before 10pm.

Today has yet another marginal setup, one that honestly looks no different than yesterday, so I’d argue a similar ceiling could exist, but unless something blows up close to home, I probably will not make a day of it today.  Tomorrow looks a bit better on paper, and that may warrant some effort that exceeds what I am currently feeling about today, so I will keep track.  My, well, lets call it what it is, laziness, doesn’t eliminate me getting out if something within a short drive erupts later today, but honestly, the desire to watch Washington pre-season Football beats out a lower-end setup.  The good news, the 5pm kickoff would mean the game would likely be done if an evening storm fires near sunset, meaning lightning is totally on the table.  Hell, the second-half of yesterday’s festivities kicked off about that time within a VERY easy drive of my house, so if that were to repeat, I would probably invest the miles for that.

Tomorrow, while not a pretty setup by any means, probably on paper looks to be the second-best offering of this stretch of days.  Of course whether it puts out anything big or not remains to be seen, but using the “on paper” rule, I have to give it some credit, and with it being a weekend day, may allow for some caravanning company if a couple local friends get enticed.  After seeing what the last couple days have offered up, the enticement certainly should be there.  That said, we will see!

On paper, today doesn’t have quite the spunk that yesterday did, but I am still going to venture out and see what I can scrap out of this.  Today’s setup seemed more focused around the I-70 corridor in eastern Colorado verses yesterday’s I–80/I-76 play.  I will probably depart here in a couple hours, heading down toward Bennett, and following things out east.  SPC keeps it at a marginal, although they’ve teased at the idea of a wind-driven slight.  Regardless, that doesn’t really change the overall setup, but worth noting the potential is there for something.  My guess, I will probably roll east with thee storms, MAYBE cross into Kansas later this evening.  We shall see.  If the HRRR is to be believed, it’s possible everything stays in Colorado through 9-10pm, minus the goodies that may develop further east closer to the border into western Kansas.  Regardless, my play will likely be the stuff coming off the Palmer.  How long I stay with it/how far I go remains to be seen, but we’ll at least give today some attention.  First thing’s first, reload the car and see if SPC goes through on any kind of wind-driven upgrade it their 1630z.  My hunch is no based on the high-rez runs that have come in the last few hours.  Nothing looks terribly focused or organized, so I imagine this will remain a marginal on their account as well as mine.