Tony's Blogbach, Between the Isobars

Snowstorm potential increasing as we near the event.  Plenty of questions remain, with the biggest being how much snow falls along the Front Range and Plains.  But everything seems to be coming together for an impactful snow event for northern Colorado starting Tuesday.

Mountains and Foothills oughta do very well, some locations at higher elevations picking up 2’+; foothills locations should come in near a foot in a lot of places.  For lower elevations, Front Range and Plains, a lot of variables remains unknown which will impact snow totals.  Many high-rez models cool us down quick on Tuesday, with changeover from cold rain to snow happening late afternoon; that would help increase our numbers a bit.  The going consensus, and the one I am buying into, would have me think mostly rain all day, with the changeover happening after 7p Tuesday and snowing into Wednesday morning.  How long it takes for that snow to start sticking and piling up will also factor into totals.  Warm ground temps will likely delay any accumulation in the first hours of snowfall, but depending how heavy and quickly things cool, that could happen sooner or later.  So yes, it’s possible it snows 10″, but only 6″ may accumulate.  News stations, Social Mets, and various sources have a wide range of accumulation maps out there, so it’s a bit confusing for the normal person to really get a grasp on what is to come.

What is HIGHLY certain is the moisture; whether it falls as all rain, a mix, or mostly snow, lower elevations in northern Colorado look to do very well moisture-wise, which is the underlying important part of this storm.  That’s gonna be a VERY nice dent in this ongoing drought.  One I think will go a long ways into improving, or at least stalling out, the worsening conditions we have here.  Hopefully this will be the first in a few solid moisture-heavy storm systems in the coming weeks.

My thoughts on the snow… well, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see double digit totals along the Front Range west of I-25, including in the western suburbs of Denver.  I think the airport, official location, will likely be in the 3-6″ range, with higher ceilings approaching 10″.  As I mentioned in the previous entry, the largest snow for Denver came back in March with 8.5″; so while I don’t think we’ll hit that mark, it is certainly well within the realm of possibility we could, thus making this MAY snow event the highest of the season.  The May snow event we had on the 20th back in 2022 yielded about 6″+ in the western burbs, with Denver officially logging 2.3″ inches, which I feel very confident will be exceeded this go around.  I’ll be stationed in northwest Denver for this event as this looks to be a northern hit for the Front Range, but I will float around as needed.

For Colorado, this is not unusual to be talking snow in May… a few years ago, we had a hefty Front Range snowstorm in late May, so popping one out the first week of the month isn’t odd.  What IS odd was that during what is typically our snowiest month in March, many Front Range locations set the record for their earliest 90-degree high temp day.  I hit 90 degrees a couple times in March at my house, which far outweighed any snow we got that month.  Now, there is POTENTIAL we could make a run at the biggest snowstorm of the year midweek.  On March 6, Denver recorded 8.5″ of snow, which by far was the biggest snow event of the season.  While it would take all the good ingredients to come together, it’s not out of the question we make a run for that title midweek.  Below are the morning runs of the NAM, GFS, and Euro (6z), all which are agreeing on significant snow potential for the Front Range and Palmer regions…

Nothing is a slam dunk by any stretch at this range, and while my optimism is growing for a decent snow event, I am not ready to fully invest in the idea.  But having seen consistency in snow potential the last few days, and now all three models are on board with the idea, I am definitely sliding into a cautious level of excitement at the idea I could be playing in snow come Tuesday and Wednesday.  How much cold air can get pulled into all this will really be the key piece, as the moisture definitely seems like it’s there regardless of how it falls.  That being said, this looks like it’ll be our first REAL shot at substantial moisture in a very parched Colorado in a couple months.

There is a severe side to this system, which is usually the case this time of year, but fortunately it’s low enough in the potential where it’s hardly a thought for me.  The setup looks more messy, high winds and hail kinda thing, which is easily beaten out by a solid snow chance here in Colorado.  I personally love it when warm season snowstorms don’t have the difficult choice of chasing verses snow.  Keeps me brain relaxed haha Right now, this is definitely all snow for me unless something incredibly drastic changes, and it would need to do so by tomorrow if I was going to pivot that violently to chase given the distance I would need to cover to get in position for the severe side, which even on its own, is in pretty crappy chase terrain anyway.  Have I mentioned how little interest I have in the severe side of this one haha

So yeah, I am likely looking at playing in the snow midweek here along the Front Range/Eastern Plains.  The models are converging on a wintry system, and obviously the forecasted amounts will vary as the models get a handle on the track.  Nothing is a slam dunk yet, but its leaning in a snowy direction that I rather highly approve of.  So we’ll see… how cold it gets and stays, its timing, and the exact track and phasing of the pieces of energy all remain unknowns and will highly dictate what ultimately comes of this.  But no matter how much falls (if any); it ain’t gonna last long.  Monday, ahead of the system, we’ll be in the 70s, and barring extensive snow cover, may return to the 70s as early as Thursday after the storm departs.  Typical Colorado haha Can’t wait…

It was a rather forgettable stretch of chasing that was wiped under the rug as my beloved kitty, Zipperfoot, passed away over the weekend a couple months shy of 19 years old.  After Thursday’s horribly disappointing bust, Ed and I abandoned the chase trip to make an all-night haul back home overnight Friday into Saturday so I could be there with my favorite floof bucket. As you know, I’m a cat dad, and this was my boy, and he waited til I got to him before passing. I am heartbroken, but so glad I was able to get to him and be there with him a final time.  Major thanks to my 20-year chase partner and good friend, Ed. He suggested the drive, leaving Wichita at almost 8pm verses me waiting for the next morning flight and pushed off turning into a pumpkin to get us halfway there. Without his insistence and shaving off a lot of miles, I would’ve been too late to be there. I cannot emphasize how important that was to me, so I owe the man a tornado for every year my cat lived.

It’s hard to remember a time without Zip… he’s been the one constant over the years through so much change, so much joy, so much sorrow… he’s been a part of just about my entire adult life… he was more than a cat, more than a pet. He was truly a soulmate… I’ve been blessed with so many wonderful kitties through my life, and have said goodbye to many… but this one hurts the most… they say you’re not suppose to pick a favorite among your children, but I can’t deny how much my favorite he is.  Thank you, Zip for finding your way to us… I know Dania and I gave you the best life, and it showed by everything you gave us in return… I hope you’ve found your Momma bear and Siggles, and are nuzzling with them in the heavens above… and you best be the first one I see when the time comes for us to be together again… you are my floof…

Opted to play what I guess we can call the secondary target for Friday’s grand finale… despite a higher (possible upgrade) tornado risk across the Midwest, I opted to make the haul to Wichita from Des Moines and set up for the dry line play somewhere near the KS/OK border.  I have a slew of both meteorological and logistical reasons for selecting this target, but given all I have seen thus far, it’ll definitely play as the day’s secondary target.

Two big questions for the southern target include how long storms can remain discrete and IF any storms can fire further south along the dryline.  The crashing cold front, which was a primary factor for choosing a further south run could serve as the bulldozer to undercut storms and sending everything into an outflow dominated linear mess.  There are plenty of signals for storm development across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, so we’ll see exactly how far south along the dryline these storms can form.  Plenty of ingredients to support significant severe weather, including tornadoes, so I don’t think I’ll have a stormless bust down this way.

Further north, primarily north of I-80 into eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and Wisconsin, areas in proximity to the low will probably spin down a few significant tornadoes, which is why there is a higher probability set there by SPC.  Again, the big question remains how discrete those storms will be.  I think that tornado threat will be much earlier in the day than anything we see south, but for how long remains a big question.  Lots of forcing yields lots of storms, and they’ll be moving fairly quickly through less-than-favorable terrain.  I think the sweet spot will be eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois; that area and it’s potential is one of the reasons I wonder if I made the right call coming down south.  But, like I said, it wasn’t all meteorology why I came south, so we’ll see.

We’re 24 hours away at least from showtime down here, so my main focus is to rest and recharge a bit after spending most of the last five days on the road.  Fortunately I played yesterday in Iowa well and gave myself a good head start down here, so not only did I make a short drive out of today, but I can take my time getting moving tomorrow unless something urgently calls me from a few more hours away.  That said, one more busy day tomorrow, then things will calm down at least through the middle of next week.

Busy day yesterday in southern Minnesota, which included my first two Minnesota tornadoes since the Wadena event in 2010.  The image above was the second tornado east of Truman, which briefly fully condensed to the ground.  This was the longer-lived of the two, not terribly strong, but certainly a looker.  The first one was from the same parent storms a few minutes prior with a brief, non-fully-condensed touchdown, with several minutes between the two ground contacts.  It’s not entirely out of the question this was one tornado, just had a multi-minute gap between contact, but we’ll see what the surveys say.  I haven’t gone through my video in a ton of detail to accurately determine that myself.  But I was close to both, within a mile, and had a great view the entire time.  I’ll yap a bit about the chaser traffic in a later blog, but I had a social media post get a little attention and I want to talk a bit about how I’ve changed my chasing around these situations.

Today, I wake up in Cedar Falls, Iowa; landed her last night shortly before 11pm and got my first night of uninterrupted sleep in a while.  I’ve been dealing with some physical ailments early on this trip which alleviated a bit yesterday and allowed me to sleep through the night finally.  Still a bit groggy as I sit down to write this, but it’s probably because I could use a couple more nights of that to get me back at 100%.

Fortunately I am closer to my target than I thought I would be last night.  Not because I had the target elsewhere, but because I ended up geographically closer to said target than I thought having not looked at a map.  I don’t get up to this part of Iowa very often.  Trying to even think if I have ever been through Waterloo.  Probably, just not recently.  That said, it’s another boundary play, and that’s really going to determine exactly where I set up.  My hope is that its south of the WI/IL border, although a quick look at Google Maps satellite implies decent terrain to chase across far southwestern Wisconsin.  Just gotta get away from the Mississippi River area where trees are a bit more obvious.  Again, not having chased up here a whole lot, I’m a bit unfamiliar with the area.

Similar to yesterday, where I was going into largely uncharted chase territory, I spent some time in the morning studying routes and river crossings.  It’s actually HOW I navigated across a river crossing south of Amboy, Minnesota yesterday where I got ahead enough of the chaser congo line to avoid being stuck in that traffic for more than a couple minutes.  I knew about the one county road between the two east/west state/US highways that everything funneled into that one road to cross the river.  Fortunately when I hit that point, I was already looking to move on to a different storm, so that was my ONLY traffic issue of note yesterday.  But it would saved me had I been in a more urgent situation.  It’s one of the tips that I think a lot of new chasers don’t realize, particularly in areas you’re unfamiliar with, is to try to know the routes and large scale escapes.  It’s a situational awareness, knowing the towns in the area I was sparked that memory that ‘oh yeah’, I have a river crossing to contend with and I need to make that move a little earlier so I don’t get squeezed. Today, other than the Mississippi River, you’re generally pretty open between US-151 to the north and US-20 to the south.  One note is that Google Maps shows US-20 closed west of Stockton, IL.  There are a couple nearby roads to detour around there, but in the heat of the chase, that could prove gnarly.  Again, just having the Illinois towns of Elizabeth and Woodbine in my head will spark that reminder that the closure is right up the road and I need to account for that in my next moves.

So yeah, my morning thoughts as I pull myself together and get ready for today.  Tomorrow looks like it could be the same general region, although a bit more messy of a setup.  Thursday at the moment, I am treating as a down day ahead of Friday, which will likely be the LAST of this particular trip.  I’ll be westbound for home this weekend.  See my chase planner there on the right for rough plans heading into early next week.  Beyond that, looks like at least one, maybe two systems in the train, the first being late next week and the next one possibly shortly thereafter.  WAAAY to far out to even begin to assess those, but I would imagine with the active pattern in place, after a short break early next week, I will be back at it!

See ya on the road!