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Squeaking Out Today

September 15, 2026 | Forecast Thoughts, Post-Mortem

Sleeper may be giving too much credit to day’s setup, but 24 hours ago, this was going to be a one-and-done trip… then today started sneaking in to some of the hi-rez model runs, and I went to bed last night thinking we could eek out one more day today.  This morning’s runs continued to show the northwest Missouri potential, so given the less-than-three-hour haul down I-29 from here in Omaha, we’ve elected to go ahead and make it so.

SPC maintains a marginal risk from the extent of the front today, and I guess it’s not out of the question they put a low-end slight to cover for this potential, but CAMs continue to show some organized storms across northwest Missouri starting mid-afternoon and trailing east across northern Missouri.  They may be a little over-zealous, and honestly I hunch they are, but it’s kind of a chase of convenience seeing as it’s close to where I am now and still sticks me on a straight shot home Wednesday.

Yesterday’schase in southeast Nebraska didn’t amount to much… most social media chasers were VERY optimistic in yesterday’s 5% hatched, I was much less so, and it played out as expected.  Most of the good stuff happened earlier and much further southwest, so it was another shelf cloud chase.  I followed storms into Iowa and snagged a couple low-end stat-padder lightning shots as the storms moved further into Iowa before coming up here to Omaha to hedge my bet on chasing today.  Yesterday didn’t leave a high bar behind, so it won’t take much to better things today, and thus, I am going to post here, pack up, and hit the road for a rainy drive south toward St. Joseph and see how that afternoon shakes out today.

The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer or affiliated organizations.

Tony's 10-Day Chase Outlook

TODAY OCT 7
No Chase Planned
<5%
TOMORROW OCT 8
Likely Tropical Day
60%
Central Gulf Coast
FRIDAY OCT 9
Likely Tropical Day
>95%
Central Gulf Coast
SATURDAY OCT 10
Likely Tropical Day
>95%
Central Gulf Coast
SUNDAY OCT 11
Possible Chase Day
60%
Southeast US
MONDAY OCT 12
Possible Chase Day
40%
Southeast US
TUESDAY OCT 13
Watching
20%
TBD
WEDNESDAY OCT 14
Watching
20%
TBD
THURSDAY OCT 15
No Chase Planned
<5%
FRIDAY OCT 16
No Chase Planned
<5%
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