Tony's Blogbach, Between the Isobars

Very low end, probably a high-based hailer and perhaps some lightning… but it’s semi-close, and it’s on a Saturday, so I’m watching it.  This does not ring any sleeper bells, so I am literally just thinking about taking a shot on a low-key, semi-local chase that’s low stress and likely to generate SOMETHING to play with in decent chase terrain.  It’s looking pretty murky, uninspiring for chasing in the nearterm outside of this as cold fronts are crashing moisture back toward the Gulf.  Some images being circulated on social media are being a little overhyped for the general background pattern, but mesoscale accidents are always sneaky.  This is where the ‘chase every day’ mentality pays off, cause you’re already invested in being out, thus you by default plays these days.  Obviously I am a bit more selective, and distance verses risk plays heavily into my decision making, so something needs to stand out over the synoptic pattern with some notice to allow me the chance to pull those triggers.  Saturday will NOT be one of those days, I don’t think, but the idea of some low key chasing on a low-end system just feels good in my head, so we’ll see if I decide to pull the trigger.  The bottom line to this post, is yes, I am considering it, even if at less than 50% as of this entry.

Biggest May snowstorm in over two-decades… ya know I am ALWAYS down for a good snowstorm, but there’s something about being in one in MAY that just adds a little something extra.  This storm boasted some impressive totals for May, coming in at the highest May snowstorm since 2003, and oddly enough was the SECOND biggest snowstorm of this season (a bar that was oh-so-low coming in).  The 5.8″ recorded officially for Denver was about half of what the western burbs saw; me measuring just over 7 inches total (which likely was lower than the actual total given melting/compacting).  And with temperatures just at or even slightly ABOVE freezing for the most part, roads remaining largely wet as opposed to icy or snowpacked, which likely aided in keeping travel impacts down at lower elevations.  Higher elevations had much bigger issues, and over 2′ of snow was measured in many areas up at elevation, so a DESPERATELY needed storm for all areas.  I clocked in with just under an inch of liquid storm total, and I will take every hundredth it had to offer.

This storm was a branch breaker, a very HEAVY, wet snow piled onto leafed trees and the carnage was all over Denver.  Most of my coverage focused in northwest Denver (Westminster, Arvada, Broomfield, etc), and it was hard to find a street that wasn’t littered with tree debris.  This was always gonna be the main impact from this, and it turned out to be true.  Actually, this was pretty well forecasted; longer range models had this pegged over a week out, at least in terms of a potential snowstorm, and in the days leading up to it, hit it pretty good.  The numbers were on par with what was forecasted, and the impacts were similar.  But the bottom line, the moisture, for both higher and lower elevations, was much needed and well delivered.  I think that is the overall consensus among the Front Range folks as this storm departs.

Awakened this morning to falling SNOW already at my house here in northern Colorado.  Ground still warm, so despite a dusting in the heavier bands, most of that melted quickly as snow lightened up.  It’s gonna need some time to stick.  Further north, Wellington to Cheyenne, accumulations are piling up with several inches of snow in/around Cheyenne on the ground already.  Snow probably won’t start sticking in earnest until later today OR we get a consistent, heavier snow to come down to offset the ground warming.

Still, expecting a pretty hefty hit of snow in northern Colorado, a VERY VERY WELCOME need.  With last night’s rain, I am already sitting at 0.66″ of liquid at my place.  Keep it coming!  Below is the latest NWS forecasted accumulations for the storm as of Tuesday morning.  I’ll be heading out shortly!

Snowstorm potential increasing as we near the event.  Plenty of questions remain, with the biggest being how much snow falls along the Front Range and Plains.  But everything seems to be coming together for an impactful snow event for northern Colorado starting Tuesday.

Mountains and Foothills oughta do very well, some locations at higher elevations picking up 2’+; foothills locations should come in near a foot in a lot of places.  For lower elevations, Front Range and Plains, a lot of variables remains unknown which will impact snow totals.  Many high-rez models cool us down quick on Tuesday, with changeover from cold rain to snow happening late afternoon; that would help increase our numbers a bit.  The going consensus, and the one I am buying into, would have me think mostly rain all day, with the changeover happening after 7p Tuesday and snowing into Wednesday morning.  How long it takes for that snow to start sticking and piling up will also factor into totals.  Warm ground temps will likely delay any accumulation in the first hours of snowfall, but depending how heavy and quickly things cool, that could happen sooner or later.  So yes, it’s possible it snows 10″, but only 6″ may accumulate.  News stations, Social Mets, and various sources have a wide range of accumulation maps out there, so it’s a bit confusing for the normal person to really get a grasp on what is to come.

What is HIGHLY certain is the moisture; whether it falls as all rain, a mix, or mostly snow, lower elevations in northern Colorado look to do very well moisture-wise, which is the underlying important part of this storm.  That’s gonna be a VERY nice dent in this ongoing drought.  One I think will go a long ways into improving, or at least stalling out, the worsening conditions we have here.  Hopefully this will be the first in a few solid moisture-heavy storm systems in the coming weeks.

My thoughts on the snow… well, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see double digit totals along the Front Range west of I-25, including in the western suburbs of Denver.  I think the airport, official location, will likely be in the 3-6″ range, with higher ceilings approaching 10″.  As I mentioned in the previous entry, the largest snow for Denver came back in March with 8.5″; so while I don’t think we’ll hit that mark, it is certainly well within the realm of possibility we could, thus making this MAY snow event the highest of the season.  The May snow event we had on the 20th back in 2022 yielded about 6″+ in the western burbs, with Denver officially logging 2.3″ inches, which I feel very confident will be exceeded this go around.  I’ll be stationed in northwest Denver for this event as this looks to be a northern hit for the Front Range, but I will float around as needed.

For Colorado, this is not unusual to be talking snow in May… a few years ago, we had a hefty Front Range snowstorm in late May, so popping one out the first week of the month isn’t odd.  What IS odd was that during what is typically our snowiest month in March, many Front Range locations set the record for their earliest 90-degree high temp day.  I hit 90 degrees a couple times in March at my house, which far outweighed any snow we got that month.  Now, there is POTENTIAL we could make a run at the biggest snowstorm of the year midweek.  On March 6, Denver recorded 8.5″ of snow, which by far was the biggest snow event of the season.  While it would take all the good ingredients to come together, it’s not out of the question we make a run for that title midweek.  Below are the morning runs of the NAM, GFS, and Euro (6z), all which are agreeing on significant snow potential for the Front Range and Palmer regions…

Nothing is a slam dunk by any stretch at this range, and while my optimism is growing for a decent snow event, I am not ready to fully invest in the idea.  But having seen consistency in snow potential the last few days, and now all three models are on board with the idea, I am definitely sliding into a cautious level of excitement at the idea I could be playing in snow come Tuesday and Wednesday.  How much cold air can get pulled into all this will really be the key piece, as the moisture definitely seems like it’s there regardless of how it falls.  That being said, this looks like it’ll be our first REAL shot at substantial moisture in a very parched Colorado in a couple months.

There is a severe side to this system, which is usually the case this time of year, but fortunately it’s low enough in the potential where it’s hardly a thought for me.  The setup looks more messy, high winds and hail kinda thing, which is easily beaten out by a solid snow chance here in Colorado.  I personally love it when warm season snowstorms don’t have the difficult choice of chasing verses snow.  Keeps me brain relaxed haha Right now, this is definitely all snow for me unless something incredibly drastic changes, and it would need to do so by tomorrow if I was going to pivot that violently to chase given the distance I would need to cover to get in position for the severe side, which even on its own, is in pretty crappy chase terrain anyway.  Have I mentioned how little interest I have in the severe side of this one haha

So yeah, I am likely looking at playing in the snow midweek here along the Front Range/Eastern Plains.  The models are converging on a wintry system, and obviously the forecasted amounts will vary as the models get a handle on the track.  Nothing is a slam dunk yet, but its leaning in a snowy direction that I rather highly approve of.  So we’ll see… how cold it gets and stays, its timing, and the exact track and phasing of the pieces of energy all remain unknowns and will highly dictate what ultimately comes of this.  But no matter how much falls (if any); it ain’t gonna last long.  Monday, ahead of the system, we’ll be in the 70s, and barring extensive snow cover, may return to the 70s as early as Thursday after the storm departs.  Typical Colorado haha Can’t wait…